Theoretically, devaluation will increase the competitiveness of their exports, but the fact is that depreciation impact on foreign trade enterprises to be more subtle, not all positive stimulating effect.
Surging News (www.thepaper.CN) in Shanghai, recently visited some foreign trade enterprises, reflecting the depreciation of export competitiveness of enterprises rose, but the depreciation of the Yuan's future will still be expected to have a negative impact on the business.
In recent days, the Yuan against the dollar is continuing to fall. On December 30, 2016, Yuan rate against the dollar at 6.9370. Although a modest increase, but in 2016 today Yuan central parity against the dollar for the year downward 4,434 points. December 15, 2016, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the major global currencies against the dollar generally fell.
On December 29, 2016, Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang, said at a regular press conference that this round of exchange rate fluctuation does not have a significant impact on China's foreign trade and foreign investment. Need more concern the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the future process of financial markets can bring to the global economy uncertainty and instability.
A charge of a company engaged in the export trade in Shanghai surging on news (www.thepaper.CN), said the company's main business is auto parts exports, mainly focused on the Middle East and Africa. "This round of devaluation on corporate influence is very big. Despite an increase in the competitiveness of export commodities, but the depreciation also allowed those overseas customers in placing orders with hesitation, that the currency will continue to depreciate it, thereby extending the order time, affected the volume. "
Exchange rate fluctuations affect not only export, the import trade has some affect.
Shanghai Chao Ma import and export Co Ltd is a main industrial electrical equipment importing company, surging official news (www.thepaper.CN) said that recent exchange rate depreciation also have a greater impact on imports, mainly in "must now quickly orders, express checkout. Within a month we will deliver the goods in, don't wait too long, for too long will and sign a contract at an exchange rate difference too much. Devaluation of the shipment is too long, then we have to fill after the payment. "
Interpretation experts have confirmed entrepreneurs feel.
China Center for international economic exchanges Deputy Chief Economist Xu Hongcai surging on news (www.thepaper.CN) on the road, it is the expectation of renminbi depreciation will have a slight negative impact on foreign trade. "This round of devaluation to export role is not very obvious. But there are some negative effects, because it will further affect people's expectations of devaluation of the Renminbi, influence psychology, people will think you may continue to depreciate. The other hand, the overindebtedness of the dollar exchange rate risk of foreign trade enterprises have also increased, the same debt to spend more RMB to the. "
According to the Commerce Department, Deputy Director of the Institute of the international market analysis of cultures, the devaluation of the Renminbi might have several layers of influence on foreign trade. First is the small high-foreign trade data. "The export of the same goods, will change to more renminbi than before, and our data is to use the renminbi in foreign trade statistics, and therefore growth figures. "Secondly, the exchange rate devaluation will boost exports, but this has to be built on in the future on the basis of the expectations of a stable exchange rate. "If the exchange rate is not a stable expectations, the result is long-term orders would be a short order. Some days ago the fair orders, explains the problem, everyone is short, flat and fast order, because of doubt about the future exchange rate fluctuations. " Robust neutral monetary policy next year enhance
Lead researcher Zhang Yan sheng, China Center for international economic exchanges, from the perspective of Sino-US trade frictions in the future impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. "The appreciation of the dollar is certainly in the future. Most currencies against the dollar were devalued, it would encourage most countries to United States exports, United States trade imbalance will intensify, so Trump may take more protectionist. Protectionism in foreign trade enterprises will undoubtedly become the victim of friction. So devaluation is not necessarily conducive to exports. "
HSBC Chief China Economist Qu Hongbin, also expressed his concerns over the uncertainty in the future. "China's export prospects remain iffy. Growth in a global economy still faces great uncertainty, and Chinese sensitivity to global demand is four times times the sensitivity to exchange rates. Second, Donald Trump's trade policy will also bring new risks to China's exports. "
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